Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs). Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Exposure: Increasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions. Results: Compared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

Alcohol Consumption During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Results From a Nationally Representative Longitudinal Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol consumption and risky drinking behavior increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, but it is not known if and for whom those changes were sustained over the longer term. This study analyzes longitudinal data on drinking patterns during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. METHODS: A nationally representative longitudinal survey was used to assess alcohol consumption patterns among respondents 21 years and older who reported drinking between February and November 2020 (N = 557) overall and by subgroups. RESULTS: Compared with February, drinks per month in April and November 2020 significantly (P ≤ 0.01) increased by 36% and 38%, respectively. The proportion exceeding drinking guidelines significantly increased by 27% and 39%, and increases for binge drinking were 26% and 30% (both P = 0.01). February to November increases in proportion exceeding drinking guidelines were significantly larger for women (54% increase) than for men (32%), and for Black (508%) than for White respondents (16%). Drinks per month significantly increased more for respondents with children in the household (64%) than for those without children (20%). There also was a significantly larger increase in drinks per month for those who reported drinking to cope (57% increase) and those who reported drinking for enhancement (40%) than for those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported alcohol consumption and risky drinking patterns increased during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Monitoring alcohol consumption changes, with a focus on marginalized groups, is warranted to plan behavioral health services and inform prevention for future pandemics.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption on health outcomes and hospitalization costs in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol consumption increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risky drinking are linked to harmful health effects. This paper aimed to project future health and cost impacts of shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: An individual-level simulation model of the long-term drinking patterns for people with life-time AUD was used to simulate 10 000 individuals and project model outcomes to the estimated 25.9 million current drinkers with life-time AUD in the United States. The model considered three scenarios: (1) no change (counterfactual for comparison); (2) increased drinking levels persist for 1 year ('increase-1') and (3) increased drinking levels persist for 5 years ('increase-5'). SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Current drinkers with life-time AUD. MEASUREMENTS: Life expectancy [life-years (LYs)], quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations and associated hospitalization costs and alcohol-related deaths, during a 5-year period. FINDINGS: Short-term increases in alcohol consumption (increase-1 scenario) resulted in a loss of 79 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI]) 26 000-201 000] LYs, a loss of 332 000 (104 000-604 000) QALYs and 295 000 (82 000-501 000) more alcohol-related hospitalizations, costing an additional $5.4 billion ($1.5-9.3 billion) over 5 years. Hospitalizations for cirrhosis of the liver accounted for approximately $3.0 billion ($0.9-4.8 billion) in hospitalization costs, more than half the increase across all alcohol-related conditions. Health and cost impacts were more pronounced for older age groups (51+), women and non-Hispanic black individuals. Increasing the duration of pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption in the increase-5 scenario resulted in larger impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations show that if the increase in alcohol consumption observed in the United States in the first year of the pandemic continues, alcohol-related mortality, morbidity and associated costs will increase substantially over the next 5 years.

Alcohol consumption and health-related quality of life in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic: a US national survey.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic yet the impacts on alcohol-related outcomes, and specifically health-related quality of life, are not completely known. Our objective was to assess the association between alcohol consumption and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: We conducted an on-line/telephone survey of three cross-sectional samples of US adults during a nine-month stretch of the pandemic, from August 2020 through April 2021, collecting data on drinking-current quantity/frequency and change since prior to pandemic, HRQOL (using the SF-6D), and perceived impact of the pandemic on respondents' lives-overall impact and disruptions across various dimensions (job loss, school closures, social isolation, loss of income). We pooled the data from the three administrations and applied survey weights to reflect the US population. We described drinking behavior and pandemic impact, and regressed HRQOL on alcohol consumption risk level (per World Health Organization categories), change in drinking since pre-pandemic, and pandemic impact using weighted least squares, controlling for respondents' demographic characteristics. We tested the significance of categorical variables using Wald tests at a p-value of 0.05. RESULTS: Among 3,125 respondents, weighted to reflect the US population, 68% reported drinking during the pandemic and 40% reported a change in drinking from pre-pandemic level (either increased or decreased). Mean HRQOL among our sample was 0.721 (SD 0.003). Any change in drinking from pre-pandemic level was independently associated with significantly lower HRQOL compared to never drinking (pre or during pandemic), from - 0.0251 points for decreased/stopped drinking to -0.0406 points for increased drinking (combined levels' Wald test F = 10.62, p < 0.0000). COVID-19 pandemic related impacts/disruptions were associated with HRQOL decrements ranging from - 0.0834 to -0.1340 (Wald test F = 64.34, p < 0.0000). CONCLUSION: The US population HRQOL was substantially lower during the pandemic than reported a decade earlier (mean = 0.79 in 2012-13). While pandemic-related impacts and disruptions may explain a large part of this decrement, changes in drinking-and the associated implications of such changes-might also play a role. Both individuals who reduced their drinking during the pandemic and those who increased consumption may be at risk of poor HRQOL.

The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated changes in drinking that may be positive or negative depending on who is affected and how. We conducted a survey of over 3,000 adults in the US during the middle of the pandemic to understand drinking and quality of life. We found that US adults' quality of life was worse during the pandemic than in prior years, and people who either increased or decreased the amount that they drank were particularly worse-off. People who reported being severely impacted by the pandemic, however, were also much worse-off in terms of quality of life, and actually more so than people whose drinking habits changed. We need to pay attention to how drinking is connected to stressful events such as the pandemic, and make sure to attend to people who change their drinking in either direction as this may indicate underlying problems.

Effect of increased alcohol consumption during COVID-19 pandemic on alcohol-associated liver disease: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol consumption increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in the United States. We projected the effect of increased alcohol consumption on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and mortality. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We extended a previously validated microsimulation model that estimated the short- and long-term effect of increased drinking during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals in the United States born between 1920 and 2012. We modeled short- and long-term outcomes of current drinking patterns during COVID-19 (status quo) using survey data of changes in alcohol consumption in a nationally representative sample between February and November 2020. We compared these outcomes with a counterfactual scenario wherein no COVID-19 occurs and drinking patterns do not change. One-year increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to result in 8000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7500-8600) additional ALD-related deaths, 18,700 (95% UI, 17,600-19,900) cases of decompensated cirrhosis, and 1000 (95% UI, 1000-1100) cases of HCC, and 8.9 million disability-adjusted life years between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2023, alcohol consumption changes due to COVID-19 will lead to 100 (100-200) additional deaths and 2800 (2700-2900) additional decompensated cirrhosis cases. A sustained increase in alcohol consumption for more than 1 year could result in additional morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A short-term increase in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic can substantially increase long-term ALD-related morbidity and mortality. Our findings highlight the need for individuals and policymakers to make informed decisions to mitigate the impact of high-risk alcohol drinking in the United States.

Health workers' perspectives on asthma care coordination between primary and specialised healthcare in the COVID-19 pandemic: a protocol for a qualitative study in Ecuador and Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is a common long-term disorder and strategies to improve asthma control are still a challenge. Integrated delivery of health systems is critical for effective asthma care: there is limited information on experiences of care coordination for asthma from Latin America, especially on perspectives of health personnel and in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol details a qualitative approach to analyse health workers' perspectives of healthcare coordination for asthma control during COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador and Brazil, at primary and specialised levels, through in-depth semistructured interviews using a video communications platform. The analysis will identify knowledge and perspectives based on coordination of clinical information, clinical management and administrative coordination. Theoretical sampling will be used to obtain approximately equal numbers of women and men within each level of healthcare; data saturation will be used to determine sample size. Transcripts will be analysed using content-coding procedures to mark quotations related to major topics and subthemes included in the interview guide, and narrative analysis will be based on a theoretical framework for healthcare coordination to identify new themes and subthemes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the ethics committees of Hospital General Docente Calderón, Quito, Ecuador; and Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil. The findings of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed articles, conference presentations and condensed summaries for key stakeholders and partners.

Associations between sociodemographic factors and physical activity and sedentary behaviors in adults with chronic diseases during COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) may be affecting the physical activity (PA) level in much of the population. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of physical inactivity and sedentary behavior (SB) among adults with chronic diseases and their associations with sociodemographic factors during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-sectional study included 249 participants (age: 18-91 years; 61.4% female) with chronic conditions and attended the Family Health Strategy program in a small town in Brazil. Data were collected between 2020-07-13 and 2020-07-24 by face-to-face interviews. Self-reported PA, sitting time, chronic diseases, medication use, sociodemographic data, and self-isolation adherence were obtained by questionnaire. During this specific time point of the COVID-19 pandemic, 71.5% of participants did not meet the PA recommendations (≥500 METs-min/week), and the prevalence of SB risk (≥4 h sitting) was 62.7%. Adjusted logistic regression indicated that male participants (odds ratio [OR]: 1.89 [95% CI 1.02-3.53]), living alone (OR: 2.92 [95% CI 1.03-8.30]) or in a two-person household (OR: 2.32 [95% CI 1.16-4.63]), and those who reported sometimes performing self-isolation (OR: 3.07 [95% CI 1.47-6.40]) were more likely to meet the minimum PA recommendations. Current smokers had a lower odds (OR: 0.36 [95% CI 0.14-0.95]) of meeting the PA recommendations. Older participants (OR: 2.18 [95% CI 1.06-4.50]) and those who had multimorbidity (OR: 1.92 [95% CI 1.07-3.44]) were more likely to have a higher degree of SB. There is an urgent need to mitigate physical inactivity and SB, and public health interventions must take into account sociodemographic status.

Alcohol Consumption in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Excessive alcohol use is a serious and growing public health problem. Alcoholic beverage sales in the United States increased greatly immediately after the stay-at-home orders and relaxing of alcohol restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not known to what degree alcohol consumption changed. This study assesses differences in alcohol drinking patterns before and after the enactment of stay-at-home orders. METHODS: In May 2020, a cross-sectional online survey of 993 individuals using a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the US population aged 21 and older was used to assess alcohol drinking patterns before (February, 2020) and after (April, 2020) the enactment of stay-at-home orders among those who consumed alcohol in February, 2020 (n = 555). Reported differences in alcohol consumption were computed, and associations between differences in consumption patterns and individual characteristics were examined. RESULTS: Compared to February, respondents reported consuming more drinks per day in April (+29%, P < 0.001), and a greater proportion reported exceeding recommended drinking limits (+20%, P < 0.001) and binge drinking (+21%, P = 0.001) in April. These differences were found for all sociodemographic subgroups assessed. February to April differences in the proportion exceeding drinking limits were larger for women than men (P = 0.026) and for Black, non-Hispanic people than White, non-Hispanic people (P = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: There is an association among the COVID-19 pandemic, the public health response to it, changes in alcohol policy, and alcohol consumption. Public health monitoring of alcohol consumption during the pandemic is warranted.

A clash of epidemics: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic response on opioid overdose.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will have a lasting impact on public health. In addition to the direct effects of COVID-19 infection, physical distancing and quarantine interventions have indirect effects on health. While necessary, physical distancing interventions to control the spread of COVID-19 could have multiple impacts on people living with opioid use disorder, including impacts on mental health that lead to greater substance use, the availability of drug supply, the ways that people use drugs, treatment-seeking behaviors, and retention in care. The degree to which COVID-19 will impact the opioid epidemic and through which of the possible mechanisms that we discuss is important to monitor. We employed simulation modeling to demonstrate the potential impact of physical distancing on overdose mortality.